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Why Are the Impacts of Extreme Weather Events Increasing?
Reference
Changnon, S.A., Pielke Jr., R.A., Changnon, D., Sylves, R.T. and Pulwarty, R.  2000.  Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81: 437-442.

What was done
The authors analyzed United States insurance loss records for evidence of long-term trends in extreme weather and climate by adjusting them for human factors such as changes in inflation, liability, land and property values and wealth.

What was learned
Although United States financial losses resulting from weather extremes have grown steadily with time, it was determined that most of the upward trends were due to "societal shifts leading to ever-growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes."  In particular, the authors concluded that "population growth and demographic shifts are the major factors behind the increasing losses from weather-climate extremes."

What it means
In the words of the authors, "it is reasonable to predict ever-increasing losses even without any detrimental climate changes."  Hence, as such losses continue to climb, one must not be mislead by claims that the climate itself is changing and producing more extreme weather.  Such a conclusion does not follow from the data.


Reviewed 1 May 2000