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ENSO in a Warmer World: Battle of the Models Resolved by Real-World Data
Reference
Huber, M. and Caballero, R.  2003.  Eocene El Niņo: Evidence for robust tropical dynamics in the "Hothouse."  Science 299: 877-881.

Background
The authors correctly report that "studies of future transient global warming with coupled ocean-atmosphere models find a shift to a more El Niņo-like state," although they also correctly report that the "permanent El Niņo state" -- which, we note, is typically hyped by climate alarmists -- "is by no means uniformly predicted by a majority of models."

What was done
To help to resolve this "battle of the models," the authors use another model, as well as real-world data pertaining to the Eocene, which past geologic epoch -- being much warmer than today -- provides, in their words, "a particularly exacting test of the robustness of ENSO."  Specifically, they used the Community Climate System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is known to produce "a faithful reproduction of modern-day ENSO variability," to "simulate the Eocene climate and determine whether the model predicts significant ENSO variability."  In addition, they compared the model results against middle Eocene lake-sediment records from two regions: the Lake Gosiute complex in Wyoming and Eckfield Maar in Germany.

What was learned
In the words of the authors, the model simulations showed "little change in ... ENSO, in agreement with proxies [our italics]."  They also note that other studies "indicate an ENSO shutdown as recently as ~6000 years ago, a period only slightly warmer than the present."

What it means
The authors conclude that "this result contrasts with theories linking past and future 'hothouse' climates with a shift toward a permanent El Niņo-like state."  Hence, their work represents a significant setback to climate alarmists who use this unsubstantiated (and now invalidated) theory to induce unwarranted fear of global warming among the general public.


Reviewed 14 May 2003