This first of the eleven articles that are claimed by Root et al. to provide statistically significant evidence for the proposition that an impact of global warming "is already discernible in animal and plant populations" fails miserably, even in terms of their own "rules."  In their 2003 paper, for example, they said they "focused on temperature change and ignored other climatic changes, such as precipitation."  Yet the Pounds et al. study, which was conducted in highland forests at Monteverde, Costa Rica, dealt with biological changes that, in the authors' own words, were "all associated with patterns of dry-season mist frequency."

Root et al. apparently justified the bending of their caused-by-temperature-change exclusivity rule on the basis of Pounds et al.'s claim that the patterns of dry-season mist frequency they identified were "negatively correlated with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific" and were therefore ultimately caused by a warming of that region of the globe.  As everyone knows, however - or should know - correlation does not prove causation; and, in fact, it was subsequently demonstrated by Lawton et al. (2001) that the changes in dry-season mist frequency that Pounds et al. claimed were due to "the increase in air temperatures that followed a step-like warming of tropical oceans in 1976" were in reality caused by upwind deforestation of adjacent lowlands that increased convective and orographic cloud bases, which resulted in a reduced moisture supply to Pounds et al.'s study area.

The drying of the air over the Monteverde site - which was thus due to local logging activity and neither global nor regional warming - did indeed lead to local decreases in lizard and amphibian populations; and that was perhaps the reason Root et al. strove so mightily to include the Pounds et al. results in their meta-analysis.  But with respect to the birds they studied, a very different result was obtained.  The number of bird species characteristic of lower elevations nearly doubled at an elevation of 1540 meters between 1979 and 1998, while the number of species characteristic of higher elevations - which climate alarmists typically claim will be forced to migrate upward in elevation until there is no place left for them to go (except extinct) - changed not at all.  As a result, bird species richness in this region actually increased, which is about as opposite a condition to extinction as one could possibly conceive.

T1.2 -- Hill et al. (1999)

The authors studied a "species of UK butterfly, the speckled wood, Pararge aegeria (L.)," finding that "after contraction of its distribution at the end of the 19th century," it increased its range.  Specifically, they report that "P. aegeria has expanded its northern margin substantially since 1940."  They also note that "changes in this species' distribution over the past 100 years are likely to have been due to climate change" and that "during this century climates in the study area have on average become warmer and drier."

What we have here is a clear-cut case of a Northern Hemispheric butterfly capitalizing on the opportunity to move northward at the northern boundary of its range in a warming climate, as is only logical it should do.  However, this response says absolutely nothing about the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis, which requires that Northern Hemispheric species will be forced to move northward at their southern boundaries in response to global or regional warming if they are to avoid heat-induced death.

T1.3 -- Hill et al. (2001)

The three authors of Hill et al. (1999) -- publication T1.2 above -- joined forces with four additional researchers in this publication to conclude pretty much the same thing ... about the same butterfly species ... over the same period of time ... in the same part of the world ... as they did in their 1999 publication.  Thus, this publication, too, sheds absolutely no light on the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis, which requires information about the movement or non-movement of the southern boundary of a species' range in the North Hemisphere.

T1.4 -- Parmesan et al. (1999)

The authors documented changes in the northern boundaries of 52 butterfly species over the past century in northern Europe, as well as concomitant changes in the southern boundaries of 40 butterfly species in southern Europe and northern Africa, over which period of time the majority of the studied region warmed by about 0.8°C.  As to the range shifts they observed, the authors report that "nearly all northward shifts involved extensions at the northern boundary with the southern boundary remaining stable."

This finding is a direct refutation of the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis, in that it demonstrates that a significant increase in temperature allowed butterflies to expand their northern boundaries northward but did not force them to move their southern boundaries northward.  Indeed, it is a strong vindication of our hypothesis, i.e., that heat-limited species' boundaries will not change in a region of both increasing temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Not only is this butterfly behavior not bad, as Root et al. would have the world believe, it is good.  The authors note, for example, that because of their stable southern boundaries and the northward movement of their northern boundaries, "most species effectively expanded the size of their range," which has helped to protect them against the possibility of extinction.  The resultant range overlapping has also increased regional biodiversity by increasing regional butterfly species richness, which is precisely what we have predicted should occur in such situations.

T1.5 -- Thomas and Lennon (1999)

The authors documented changes in the distributions of numerous British bird species that occurred between 1970 and 1990 - which they describe as "a period of climatic warming" - finding that the northern margins of southerly species' breeding ranges shifted northward by an average of 19 km, while the southern margins of northerly species' breeding ranges shifted not at all.  This finding, like that of publication T1.4 above, is at one and the same time a direct refutation of the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis and a striking confirmation of our view of the subject.

T1.6 -- Prop et al. (1998)

The authors documented changes in the distribution of spring staging barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) in Norway, finding that they extended the northern boundary of their range further north between 1983 and 1992, when increasingly warmer spring temperatures may have made more northerly islands more readily accessible to them.  However, the authors also say "the shift in distribution could have been induced by limited supplies of food on the traditional islands, leaving the growing numbers of geese no choice but to explore new areas."  In either case, this finding has no bearing whatsoever on the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis, which to be viable requires a northward extension of the southern boundary of a species' range in the Northern Hemisphere.

T1.7 -- Grabherr et al. (1994)

The authors "collected data on the state of the flora at 26 summits exceeding 3,000 m in the middle part of the Alps and compared the actual records on cover and abundance of vascular plant species with historical records," finding that "species richness has increased during the past few decades, and is more pronounced at lower altitudes."

This result, like the results of publications T1.4 and T1.5, also argues against the validity of the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis, as the 0.7°C warming of the mountainous region over the period of data comparison resulted in no loss of species at upper elevations, but led instead to significant increases in species richness at lower elevations, where plants from still lower elevations apparently capitalized on the opportunity to expand their ranges upward in response to the regional warming, both of which results are again in harmony with what we are predicting to occur in response to simultaneous increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration.

T1.8 -- Pauli et al. (1996)

The authors documented temporal changes in the summit floras of 30 mountains spread throughout three regions of Europe: (1) the central European Alps of Switzerland and Italy, (2) the Otztaler Alpen of Austria and Italy, and (3) the Zillertaler Alpen and Rieserferner Gruppe of Austria and Italy.  Dates of initial species counts ranged from 1895 to 1953, producing a mean date of 1920, while the modern assessments were made in 1992 and 1993.

Over the period studied, during which time Austrian air temperatures are claimed by the authors to have risen by 2°C, with an increase of 1.2°C in the last 30 years alone, little net change was observed in species numbers at 9 of the 30 summits, where there was, as they describe it, a "stagnation of species richness."  At the other 21 summits, however, species numbers rose dramatically.  The top-performing 11 summits, for example, gained an average of 59% more species, with one summit exhibiting a species increase of 143%, once again in confirmation of what we are predicting.

The contention of climate alarmists, however, is that this opportunistic march of lower-elevation species up the mountains will result in a loss of the species that initially lived at their summits.  So far, the data show only the slightest hint of such an effect, with a mean loss of less than a single species (0.68) out of an original mean species number of 15.57 across all 30 mountains, for a mean species number decline of about 4.4%.  However, this tiny decrease is probably due to something other than competition from invading species, since the loss of original species on the 11 summits showing the greatest species invasion from lower elevations was considerably less than the mean loss, at only 2.5%.

Once again, therefore, these data tend to argue against the validity of the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis, as concurrent increases in the air's CO2 content and temperature have greatly increased species richness on the mountain tops surveyed in this study without any clear-cut indication of a negative impact on the indigenous species that lived there before the warming began.

T1.9 -- Kullman (2001)

The author reviewed what has been learned from several studies of temporal changes in the vertical locations of mountain-side tree-limits that have been carried out over the past century in the southern Scandes of Sweden, based on data obtained from a network of more than 200 tree-limit sites spread over an area of approximately 8,000 km².  His findings?  (1) "Concurrent with fluctuating climate warming, tree-limits of different species in the Swedish Scandes have advanced upslope by 100-165 m during the 20th century."  (2) "The major part of this displacement occurred prior to 1950, followed by stability or slight reversal for some colder mid-century decades."  (3) "Signs of resumed advance were recorded during the 1990s."  As these findings clearly relate to the upper cold-limited boundaries of the trees' ranges, they again tell us nothing about the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis, which requires lower elevation heat-limited boundaries to be moving upward also.

T1.10 -- Vesperinas et al. (2001)

The authors systematically investigated the distribution of certain plant species in the northwest quadrant of the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean coast over the past 30 years, finding a correlation between temperature increases detected in thermometric data series and an "expansion of native, thermophilic species (Sonchus tenerrimus, Dittrichia viscosa) towards colder inland areas where they were previously absent."  They also documented similar expansions of "taxa from the neotropics and the Cape Province of South Africa which have colonized areas close to the Mediterranean coast."

Once again, these observations merely confirm the obvious: when temperatures rise and the climate warms, species are able to extend their ranges into areas where it was previously too cold for them to successfully grow and reproduce.  This study thus has absolutely no bearing upon the question of what happens at the heat-limited boundaries of a species range, which is the crucial question for the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis.

T1.11 -- van Herk et al. (2002)

The authors analyzed a database of approximately 70,000 lichen records that had been accumulated since 1979 in the province of Utrecht in the central part of the Netherlands.  They found that "the total number of taxa present increased from 95 in 1979 to 172 in 2001, while the average number of taxa per site increased from 7.5 to 18.9."  However, a clear response to warming was only evident from 1995 to 2001.

Since this finding is a consequence of the northern range boundaries of southerly taxa moving northward, it again tells us nothing about the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis; but it does indicate that the opportunistic northward march of more southerly lichens has greatly increased lichen species richness in the study area, as we predict.  That this development is good is indicated by the authors' statement that "the Netherlands is regaining its original lichen flora, which was largely lost due to heavy air pollution" in earlier decades.