The authors review what is known about marine ecosystem sensitivity to climate change on the Antarctic Peninsula, focusing on its penguin populations.  Noting that "Adelie penguins are obligate inhabitants of pack ice, whereas their congeners, the chinstrap penguins, occur almost exclusively in ice-free waters," they describe pretty much the same historical shifts in these species' habitats (and, consequently, their populations) as do Emslie et al. (1998) in paper T2.1.  Hence, with the Antarctic Peninsula currently warming but the rest of Antarctica cooling, the authors of this study find that "optimum sea ice conditions for Adelie penguins no longer exist in the west Antarctic Peninsula region and populations continue to decline, whereas in the Ross Sea region optimum sea ice and habitat conditions have not yet occurred and populations are increasing."

So what did the authors learn?  Different penguin populations in Antarctica tend to follow the climatic conditions that suit them best, clearly avoiding extinction and alternately replacing one another as the climate either warms or cools.  So it has ever been; so it shall ever be.

PY.2 -- Grabherr et al. (1995)

The authors of this chapter in a book devoted to the study of arctic and alpine biodiversity present essentially the same data as are discussed by Grabherr et al. (1994) and Pauli et al. (1996) in papers T1.7 and T1.8.  Although their report is filled with dire predictions of species extinctions, and they say that upslope migration rates of plant species "may not be adequate to keep pace with climate warming," so that "in high mountain areas an extensive reduction in biodiversity may occur," their own real-world data show just the opposite to be occurring.  With respect to various mountains in the Alps of Europe, they report that "species richness has increased on most of the summits" and "most of the species have increased in abundance," which is exactly what we predict should be occurring in response to concurrent increases in atmospheric temperature and CO2 concentration.  Truly, life is proliferating and local biodiversity is on the rise, thanks to the ongoing increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature.

PY.3 -- Sagarin et al. (1999)

The authors documented changes in the abundance of macroinvertebrate species in a rocky intertidal community at Hopkins Marine Station, Pacific Grove, California, USA, between surveys conducted in 1931-33 and 1993-96, over which time interval the average shoreline water temperature at the site warmed by 0.8°C.  The scientists found that "most southern species (10 of 11) increased in abundance, whereas most northern species (5 of 7) decreased."  Cosmopolitan species, on the other hand, "showed no clear trend, with 12 increasing and 16 decreasing."

Although these observations clearly suggest that regional warming was responsible for the observed species abundance changes at the site of the study, they obviously tell us nothing about the overall well-being of the species studied.  Hence, they are totally irrelevant to the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis.

PY.4 -- Beaugrand et al. (2002)

The authors "provide evidence of large-scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean and European shelf seas" over the period 1960-1999.  In particular, they note that east of 20°W, they "found a significant poleward movement of warm species associated with a clear decrease in the number of subarctic and arctic species in the north."  West of the mid-Atlantic ridge, however, especially in the Labrador Sea, they report "the trend is opposite and the number of arctic species has clearly increased," confirming a "shift of marine ecosystems toward a colder dynamic equilibrium in the Subarctic Gyre."  The authors then note that the various range shifts they identified appeared to be correlated with concomitant changes in temperature.  Again, however, their data tell us little about the overall health of the species studied or the total sizes of their populations.  That both warm-adapted and cold-adapted species tend to track temperature changes is all that was learned, which most anyone could probably have told them in advance.

PY.5 -- Hersteinsson and Macdonald (1992)

The authors describe the geographical distributions of red and arctic foxes in the tundras of North America and Eurasia, noting that during the early 20th century "red foxes expanded the northern limits of their distribution into higher latitudes and altitudes," driven primarily, in the authors' opinion, by the positive consequences of the warming of that period for red fox prey availability.  The subsequent competition the invading red foxes provided for arctic foxes then resulted in a northward shift of the latter species' southern range boundary, which was obliged to recede no further, however, than the northward extension of the red foxes' northern boundary.  Hence, as with the previous study (PY.4), this study, too, provides evidence for climate-induced range shifts but no indication that these shifts were in any way detrimental to the overall vitality of any of the species involved.

PY.6 -- Holbrook et al. (1997)

The authors studied changes in assemblages of nearshore reef fishes in the Southern California Bight over the period 1974-93.  Near the beginning of this period, during 1976-77, the mean surface temperature of the region rose by nearly 1°C above the mean of the previous 15 years, coincident with a change in the basic state of the atmosphere-ocean climate system of the North Pacific Ocean.  Thereafter "dominance shifted from cold-affinity species to those with affinity for warmer water" as "abundances of Northern species declined and those of Southern species increased."

This finding is much like the findings of many of the studies we have already considered.  Species tend to "go with the flow" of changing climatic conditions (especially marine species), shifting their ranges and often creating new biotic associations with other species.  In all instances, however, there are no indications of anything that would support the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis, in that the range shifts do not lead to the demise of any of the species involved nor, in most cases, even to decreases in the sizes of their populations.

PY.7 -- Sturm et al. (2001)

In July of 1999 and 2000, the authors re-photographed 66 sites located between the Brooks Range and the Arctic coast of Alaska that had been photographed between 1948 and 1950.  At over half of these locations they found "distinctive and, in some cases, dramatic increases in the height and diameter of individual shrubs, in-filling areas that had only a scattering of shrubs in 1948-50, and expansion of shrubs into previously shrub-free areas."

The scientists attributed this northward shifting of shrubs to the significant simultaneous warming of the region.  It is also possible that the northward march of the woody plants may have been aided by the concomitant increase in the air's CO2 content, as described by Idso (1995), who assembled a wealth of literature citations describing the invasion of grasslands by woody plants on all continents of the globe (except Antarctica, of course) and explained why such a phenomenon should be expected in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  In any event, whether driven by increases in the air's CO2 content, its temperature or both phenomena, it is clear that the woody-plant range expansions described in this study are opportunistic responses to environmental change that in no way imply the impending demise of the migrating species that is predicted by the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis.

PY.8 -- Smith (1994)

The authors report that data obtained by several researchers over a period of 27 years - during which time the Antarctic Peninsula experienced rapid and significant warming - have revealed "a significant and relatively rapid increase in numbers of individuals and populations at two widely separated localities in the maritime Antarctic" of "the only two native Antarctic vascular plant species (Colobanthus quitensis and Deschampsia antarctica)."  This observation provides yet another example of opportunistic plant response to regional warming, which in this case would appear to be the absolute antithesis of impending extinction.

PY.9 -- Parmesan (1996)

Citing a number of scientific sources, the author says that in response to global warming, "species' ranges should move both polewards in latitude and upwards in elevation."  Testing this hypothesis as it pertains to Edith's checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha), Parmesan says she "censused 115 sites with historical records to classify their current status as extinct or intact, and for 36 additional sites determined current status."

With respect to potential latitudinal range shifting, she found "a striking latitudinal cline in net extinction rates," with previously-viable local populations in much-warmer Mexico four times more likely to be currently locally extinct than those in much-cooler Canada, which is what would be expected in a warming world.  However, it is important to note that local extinctions occurred across the entire latitudinal range investigated, which stretched from hundreds of kilometers into Mexico to hundreds of kilometers into Canada.

Even more important was the fact that living populations of the butterfly were found scattered across the same vast distance, indicating that they can - and do! - survive and reproduce across a very wide range of thermal conditions.  Hence, even if Parmesan's conclusion was correct - which is highly debatable, based on these latter observations - it would suggest that the heat-limited southern boundary of the butterfly's range would never be able to move fast enough or far enough to overtake its cold-limited northern boundary in a warming world, which is what would be required for the total extinction of the species that is predicted by the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis.

But what about potential elevational range shifting, where much smaller distances separate a species' cold- and heat-limited range boundaries?  Here, Parmesan was forced to report that "although a predicted result of climate warming is an increased extinction rate at the very lowest elevations, no such trend appears in the data [our italics]."  Hence, her claim that her field work and analysis represents "the first study to provide evidence of the predicted range shifts" is vastly overstated.  Indeed, it fails outright in one of its two tests (the elevational response) and is far from convincing in the other one (the latitudinal response).

PY.10 -- Payette et al. (1989)

The authors investigated vegetation response to long-term climate change in northern Canada, based on tree-ring and growth-form analysis of spruce subfossils.  Their data suggest, in their words, that "vegetation responses to global warming are not as straightforward as one may expect."  Specifically, they note that "although recent climatic data indicate sustained global warming during this century, no conclusive evidence of a positive vegetation response to such warming has yet been identified at these exposed tree-line sites."  How Parmesan and Yohe could thus have cited this study as evidence for their claim that the temperature increase of the past century "is already affecting living systems" is difficult to understand.

PY.11 -- Ross et al. (1994)

The authors began their study by noting that Alexander (1976) interpreted the presence of dead pine tree trunks in mangrove swamps of the Lower Florida Keys as evidence of 20th century sea-level rise, which was presumed to have killed the pine trees.  They then extended and updated Alexander's work by examining aerial photos and field evidence "to learn how the 15-cm rise in local sea level over the last 70 years had affected the distribution of pines."  Their ultimate conclusion was that "the salinization of ground- and soil-water that occurs as sea level rises is a major factor in the reduction of [local] pine forests."

But what about warming, the direct effects of which are supposed to be responsible for the "distribution/abundance shifts" Parmesan and Yohe claim are evident in living systems?  In the words of Ross et al., "over the periods of record (temperature: 1850-1986; precipitation: 1886-1986) there was no directional trend in either of the climatic parameters [our italics]."

In terms of sea level rise, of course, it is not regional but global warming that is of pertinence; and the globe has indeed been warming, in the mean, since the middle of the 19th century (Esper et al., 2002).  But migrating to escape rising sea levels is not the mechanism upon which the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis is based.  Hence, this study, too, is essentially irrelevant to any attempt to validate that concept.

PY.12 -- Johnson (1994)

The author, "using as a baseline the distributional literature of the late 1950s-early 1960s," says he "compiled records for 24 species of birds from Audubon Field Notes, American Birds, and other sources which document massive pioneering and large-scale expansion of nesting distributions over the last three decades in the contiguous western United States."  Specifically, he reports finding "four northern species have extended their ranges southward, three eastern species have expanded westward, 14 southwestern or Mexican species have moved northward, one Great Basin-Colorado Plateau species has expanded radially, and two Great Basin-Rocky Mountain subspecies have expanded westward."

What is responsible for these all-directional range expansions?  Johnson concludes that "although climatic warming is probably involved, especially for those southwestern species that are invading northward, it is probably neither the sole explanation nor even the primary cause [our italics] for range adjustments among the expanding species as a group."  As an alternative cause, he suggests that "many of these species are responding primarily to a decades-long increase of summer rainfall [our italics] in regions beyond their former ranges."  Again, one wonders how Parmesan and Yohe could possibly have cited these findings as evidence for their claim that the global warming of the past century "is already affecting living systems."