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Indian Summer Monsoon Defies Climate Model Predictions
Reference
Bingyi, W.  2005.  Weakening of Indian summer monsoon in recent decades.  Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 22: 21-29.

What was done
The author analyzed 43 years (1958-2000) of NCEP-NCAR (National Centers for Environment Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data and station observations (including sea level pressure, geopotential heights, air temperatures and zonal winds at each standard level from 1000 hPa to 200 hPa), looking for any relationships that might exist between tropospheric temperature and the strength of the Indian summer monsoon circulation.

What was learned
Bingyi reports that the Indian summer monsoon circulation "underwent two weakening processes in recent decades."  The first occurred in the mid-1960s and the second in the late 1970s.  The cause of the first of these weakenings, in his words, "may be attributed to significant tropospheric temperature decreases in East Asia and the African monsoon region," while he states that "the second weakening may be attributed to significant tropospheric warming over the tropical area from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific," which he says "was related with the global warming."

What it means
Chase et al. (2003) report that "greenhouse gas warming simulations generally show increased intensity of Asian summer monsoonal circulations (Meehl and Washington, 1993; Hirakuchi and Giorgi, 1995; Li et al., 1995; Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Chakraborty and Lal, 1994; Suppiah, 1995; Zhao and Kellog, 1988; Hulme et al., 1998; Wang, 1994)."  However, the real-world results of Bingyi suggest that, if anything, just the opposite has recently occurred, and that it occurred in response to what climate alarmists describe as unprecedented CO2-induced warming over the last two decades of the 20th century.  One can't get things much more wrong than that.

References
Chakraborty, B. and Lal, M.  1994.  Monsoon climate and its change in a doubled CO2 atmosphere simulated by CSIRO9 model.  TAO 5: 515-536.

Chase, T.N., Knaff, J.A., Pielke Sr., R.A. and Kalnay, E.  2003.  Changes in global monsoon circulations since 1950.  Natural Hazards 29: 229-254.

Hirakuchi, H. and Giorgi, F.  1995.  Multiyear present-day and 2x CO2 simulations of monsoon climate over eastern Asia and Japan with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model.  Journal of Geophysical Research 100: 21,105-21,125.

Hulme, M., Osborn, T.J. and Johns, T.C.  1998.  Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: Comparison of observations with HADCM2 simulations.  Geophysical Research Letters 25: 3379-3382.

Li, X., Yang, S., Zhao, Z. and Ding, Y.  1995.  The future climate change simulation in east Asia from CGCM experiments.  Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology 6: 1-8.

Meehl, G.A. and Washington, W.M.  1993.  South Asian summer monsoon variability in a model with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.  Science 260: 1101-1104.

Suppiah, R.  1995.  The Australian summer monsoon: CSIRO9 GCM simulations for 1x CO2 and 2x CO2 conditions.  Global and Planetary Change 11: 95-109.

Wang, H.  1994.  The monsoon precipitation variation in the climate change.  Acta Meteorologie Sinica 9: 48-56.

Zhao, Z. and Kellogg, W.W.  1988.  Sensitivity of soil moisture to doubling of carbon dioxide in climate model experiments, Pt. 2, Asian monsoon region.  Journal of Climate 1: 367-378.

Zwiers, F.W. and Kharin, V.V.  1998.  Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by the CCC GCM2 under CO2 doubling.  Journal of Climate 11: 2200-2222.

Reviewed 4 May 2005